Budget Speech 2017Global economic outlook |
Madam Speaker, allow me to comment briefly on the international outlook.
After several years of tentative economic growth, there are signs that a more sustainable recovery might be under way.
• | Growth in the United States and Europe is steady, although at low levels. |
• | India and China remain comparatively buoyant, and economies such as Russia and Brazil are set to recover from recessions. |
• | The International Monetary Fund projects that the world economy will grow by 3.4 per cent in 2017 and 3.6 per cent in 2018. |
Many countries face the challenge of ensuring that as growth picks up, its benefits accrue to all in society. The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath exposed deep fault-lines in the world economy and in the distribution of income. Economic recovery has been slow. In several countries affected by unrest or war, there has been great hardship and dislocation of people. The impact of trends in trade, technology and commodity markets has been uneven. These forces have heightened social and political pressures for change. Global strains manifest in various ways, including the rise of strident economic nationalism and protectionist policies.
Government and business leaders throughout the world have had to reflect on the deficit of trust and loss of social solidarity in their societies. Policies and programmes that strengthen economic inclusion are being prioritised everywhere. In the words of Pope Francis, “Reforming the social structures which perpetuate poverty and the exclusion of the poor first requires a conversion of mind and heart”.
We therefore welcome Germany’s commitment to highlighting Africa and its infrastructure financing requirements as a priority of its term in chairing the G20 countries.
We operate within a connected global economic system. South Africa’s economic performance is affected by global economic trends. We rely on global cooperation to address trade imbalances, the abuse of tax havens and the coordination of financial stabilisation efforts.
South Africa, and the entire African continent, stand to gain from expanding global trade within what Minister Davies has described as a “more inclusive progressive multilateralism, characterised by real cooperation and solidarity,… sensitive to the needs of the poorest.”