Following the observations from the analysis of technical simulations and the adoption of the positions discussed earlier (continued operation of plants affected by MES, Koeberg power station design life extended beyond year 2024, imposing annual build limits on renewables, diesel fired peaking plants operating at high load factor), the following plan in Table 5 emerges with indicative price path as indicated in Figure 9.

Higher average tariff projection as shown in Figure 9 below for the IRP 2019 plan (Table 5) is due to low EAF and diesel fired peakers running at high load factors (Appendix C) in order to close the supply gap. The model is unable to deploy gas to complement renewables as it is assumed gas will only be available from year 2024 which was not the case with scenarios in the draft IRP 2018 .